进口风险指数对预测罕见进口传染病风险的潜在适用性
Kyung-Duk Min1, Sun-Young Kim2,3, Yoon Young Cho4
1College of Veterinary Medicine, Chungbuk National University, 1 Chungdae-ro, Seowon-gu, Cheongju, 28644, South Korea.
BMC public health
|September 12, 2023
概括
进口风险指数 (IR) 显示了预测罕见传染病进口的潜力,如狂犬病,但并不普遍适用. 对于特定疾病的模型,需要进一步的研究.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 进口传染病对公众健康构成重大威胁.
- 航空旅行量和进口风险指数 (IR) 是常用的预测指标.
- 对于罕见的传染病,存在有限的验证.
研究的目的:
- 评估IR指数和航空旅行量预测性能.
- 评估IR指数对于罕见疾病进口事件的适用性.
主要方法:
- 分析了狂犬病和非洲试虫病进口事件.
- 使用的年度航空旅行量和疾病发病率数据.
- 使用后勤回归和接收器操作特征 (ROC) 分析.
主要成果:
- 红线指数与狂犬病进口有显著的相关性 (p < 0.001).
- 红外线指数显示与非洲试索菌病的相关性较差 (p = 0.923).
- 狂犬病的预测性能 (AUC = 0.734) 是合理的,而非洲试虫病 (AUC = 0.641) 是糟糕的.
结论:
- 对于预测罕见疾病进口来说,IR指数并不普遍适用.
- 国际流感指数证明了对狂犬病进口预测的潜在实用性.
- 建议进行进一步的研究,以探索可通用性和开发特定疾病的模型.
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