自1925年以来,大米产量与气候变量之间的关系的时间变化
Hungyen Chen1, Yi-Chien Wu2, Chih-Yung Teng2
1Department of Agronomy, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
PeerJ
|September 13, 2023
概括
这项研究分析了台湾95年产数据,发现气候变化对产产生负面影响,特别是在较冷的季节. 随着时间的推移,产量对温度,昼间温度范围和降雨量的反应发生了显著的变化.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 长期作物产量和气候数据对于了解气候对农业的时间影响至关重要.
- 评估对大米的气候影响及其在长时间内的时间变化是必不可少的.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变量对1925年至2019年台湾大米产量的影响.
- 分析不同种植季节和历史时期气候对大米产量影响的时间变化.
主要方法:
- 收集和分析了95年的产量和气候数据 (温度,DTR,降雨量,阳光持续时间).
- 使用时间序列的第一差值来估计产量-气候关系.
- 计算了不同间隔 (1925-1944,1945-1983,1996-2019) 的收益率变化,以评估时间变化.
主要成果:
- 平均温度上升,而白天温度范围和阳光持续时间在95年内下降.
- 寒冷季节产量对温度的反应减少,但对DTR和降雨的反应增加.
- 温暖的季节产量对温度,DTR和降雨的反应始终为负值.
- 最近的气候变量 (1996-2019) 对凉季产量产生了负面影响,对暖季产量产生了轻微的积极影响.
结论:
- 过去一个世纪以来,气候变化明显影响了台湾的产.
- 气候影响的时间变化需要适应性农业战略.
- 与温度和DTR相比,降雨和阳光持续时间对大米产量变化的影响较弱.
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