调查城市和城市农村边缘地区之间的伤害严重程度相互作用:一个分组随机参数看似无关的双变量探针方法
Daiquan Xiao1, Quan Yuan2,3, Xuecai Xu1
1School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
International journal of injury control and safety promotion
|September 13, 2023
概括
通过了解伤害严重程度的相互作用,可以提高城市和边缘地区的道路安全. 一个新的模型揭示了影响事故结果的关键因素,有助于针对性安全干预.
科学领域:
- 运输安全运输安全
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 交通工程是交通工程.
背景情况:
- 城市化带来了安全挑战,特别是在混合交通和土地使用的边缘地区.
- 了解城市和边缘区域之间的伤害严重程度相互作用对于有效的安全策略至关重要.
- 未观察到的因素可以在伤害严重程度分析中引入异质性和相关性.
研究的目的:
- 调查城市和城乡边缘地区之间伤害严重程度的相互作用.
- 探索伤害严重程度之间的相关性,并考虑未观察到的异质性.
- 提出和验证一种用于分析交通伤害严重程度的新型统计模型.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分组随机参数看似无关的双变体 (SUB) 探针模型.
- SUB探针模型处理剩余相关性,而随机参数则考虑未观察到的异质性.
- 该模型应用于中国成都 (2013-2017) 交通事故数据.
主要成果:
- 随机参数 SUB 探头模型与聚合模型相比,表现优越.
- 撞车地点,限速和受伤者的年龄是这两个地区受伤严重程度的重要因素.
- 撞车形式显著影响城市伤害严重程度,而涉及人员的数量在边缘地区至关重要.
结论:
- 拟议的模型有效地捕捉了受伤严重程度的相关性和异质性.
- 根据特定的风险因素,需要针对城市和城乡边缘地区采取不同的安全措施.
- 调查结果提供了实证证据,证明有针对性的干预措施可以在综合的城乡环境中提高道路安全.
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