自1961年以来,江河流域生态流的演变和归因
Wenxian Guo1, Fengtian Hong1, Baoliang Wang1
1North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 13, 2023
概括
气候变化和人类活动影响河流的生态流动. 这项研究量化了江流域的这些影响,发现气候变化推动了高流量,而人类活动增加了春季赤字,影响了生物多样性.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化和人类活动,河流的生态流量发生了重大变化,加剧了用水冲突.
- 评估生态流动动力学对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估江流域在多个时间尺度上的生态流变化.
- 量化人类干扰和气候变化对生态流的明显影响.
- 评估河流生物多样性对变化的河流条件的反应.
主要方法:
- 使用的生态流量指标:生态赤字和生态余.
- 使用长短期记忆 (LSTM) 开发了一种气象流动模型.
- 采用分离框架来区分气候和人类影响.
- 使用香农指数 (SI) 评估河流生态系统反应.
主要成果:
- 1991年以后,江河的流量增加了11%;降水和蒸发转化显示周期性变化.
- 年度生态顺差增加,而年度生态赤字减少;季节性变化显示夏季/秋季生态赤字减少,冬季生态顺差增加.
- 气候因素导致高流量 (91-94%的贡献),而城市化和水库导致春季生态赤字.
- 2002年以后减少的河流流量导致生物多样性下降,年度/夏季生态余和SI之间有很强的相关性.
结论:
- 气候变化是河流高流的主要驱动因素,而人类活动显著影响季节性生态流量赤字.
- 改变河流流动力学,特别是减少生态剩余,会对河流生物多样性产生负面影响.
- 这些发现为在江流域制定有效的生态流量调节政策提供了基础.
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