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一个深度学习模型用于重建长江流域百年水库变化
Jielong Wang1, Yunzhong Shen1, Joseph L Awange2
1College of Surveying and Geo-informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, PR China.
The Science of the total environment
|September 13, 2023
概括
一个新的深度学习模型,RecNet,重建了长江流域一个世纪的储水变化,揭示了极端气候事件的脆弱性,并为水资源管理策略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 地球观测和远程传感
- 环境科学中的人工智能
背景情况:
- 准确的总储水异常 (TWSA) 观测对于理解水文变异性至关重要.
- 长江流域 (YRB) 的有限历史GRACE (重力恢复和气候实验) 数据阻碍了长期变异性研究.
- 了解长期的TWSA对于有效的水资源管理和气候变化适应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个深度学习模型 (RecNet) 来重建从1923年到2022年在YRB中的气候驱动的TWSA.
- 评估极端水文条件的频率及其与主要气候模式的远程连接.
- 为长期气候变异性研究和YRB未来干旱/洪水预测提供有价值的数据.
主要方法:
- 开发了RecNet,这是一个深度学习模型,使用加权平均平方误差 (WMSE) 损失函数对降水,温度和GRACE观测进行训练.
- 与GRACE数据,水预算估计,水文模型,干旱指数和现有重建数据集相比,验证了RecNet性能.
- 采用独立组件分析和波束连贯性分析来调查气候模式对TWSA的影响.
主要成果:
- RecNet成功地重建了YRB的历史储水变化,超过了以前的方法.
- 重建的数据显示,在过去的一个世纪里,YRB中出现了反复出现的极端干湿状况.
- 在YRB中发现主要气候模式 (ENSO,IOD,PDO,NAO) 和TWSA之间存在显著的连贯性.
结论:
- RecNet模型提供了一个强大的方法来重建长期的TWSA,克服数据限制.
- 年轻人区域表现出对气候变化的显著脆弱性,极端水文事件经常发生.
- 重建的数据集为YRB的水资源管理和气候变化适应提供了关键的见解.
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