根据不同的气候减缓战略和雄心壮志,全球化石燃料减少途径
Ploy Achakulwisut1,2, Peter Erickson3, Céline Guivarch4
1Stockholm Environment Institute, Seattle, WA, USA. ploy@sei.org.
Nature communications
|September 13, 2023
概括
将全球变暖限制在1.5°C需要大幅削减化石燃料. 基于碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 和二氧化碳去除 (CDR) 的途径显示天然气减排的高变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化政府间小组第六次评估报告的减缓情景数据库对于能源转型政策至关重要.
- 现有模型对化石燃料减少途径提供了不同的输出.
研究的目的:
- 在将变暖限制在2°C或以下的情景中分析化石燃料减少途径.
- 评估这些路径的速度,轨迹和可行性,特别是对于煤炭,石油和天然气.
主要方法:
- 从IPCC第六次评估报告中对减缓情景的分析.
- 专注于符合1.5°C升温极限的情景 (没有或有限的超越).
- 评估碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 和二氧化碳除去 (CDR) 的不同水平的途径.
主要成果:
- 将变暖限制在1.5°C的情景显示,到2050年,全球煤炭,石油和天然气供应的平均减少分别为95%,62%和42%.
- 对天然气的更高依赖与CCS和CDR的增加有关,但可能受到储能和技术采用的限制.
- 限制二氧化碳去除 (CDR) 需要更积极地减少化石燃料:煤炭99%,石油70%,天然气84%.
结论:
- 对于短期和长期的化石燃料生产和消费减少,迫切需要明确的基准.
- 天然气在缓解途径中的长期作用是高度可变的,并且取决于CCS和CDR假设.
- 在表示CCS和CDR可行性方面,模型的局限性可能会影响某些化石燃料减少策略的可行性.
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