气候变化对全球范围内麻的潜在边际土地资源的影响在气候变化挑战下存在挑战
Yongping Li1,2, Fangyu Ding3,4, Mengmeng Hao3,4
1Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, 650093, China.
Scientific reports
|September 13, 2023
概括
预计在气候变化下,生物能源至关重要的菜种植的全球边缘土地将扩大. 这项研究模拟了未来的土地可用性,突出了非洲和南美洲的潜在增加.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生物能源研究 生物能源研究
背景情况:
- 全球日益增长的能源需求和气候政策需要生物能源的发展.
- 评估边缘土地对于防止与粮食生产竞争至关重要.
- 大麻是一种主要的能源作物,使其土地适用性评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候变化场景下,为麻豆种植建模潜在的边际土地资源.
- 量化到2030年,2050年和2080年适合麻的边缘土地的变化.
- 通过了解气候变化对土地资源的影响,为生物能源潜力评估提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用增强回归树 (BRT) 机器学习模型.
- 嵌入了麻发生记录和环境共变量用于建模.
- 根据代表性度路径 (RCP) 4.5,6.0和8.5场景分析了土地适用性.
主要成果:
- 目前,超过80%的可用边缘土地用于麻豆是在非洲和南美洲.
- 在所有分析的气候场景下,预计适合麻的边缘土地将在全球范围内增加.
- 边缘土地的预计增加因场景和时间段而异,预计到2050年和2080年将有显著增长.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将对全球范围内适合种植麻瓜的边缘土地的可用性产生重大影响,并普遍增加.
- 这些发现为评估将来从木生产生物能源的潜力提供了至关重要的基础.
- 生物能源发展的战略规划应考虑气候变化带来的边际土地资源的动态变化.
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