预计21世纪欧洲大黄蜂种群的减少
Guillaume Ghisbain1,2, Wim Thiery3, François Massonnet4
1Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium. guillaume.ghisbain@umons.ac.be.
Nature
|September 13, 2023
概括
由于息地退化和气候变化,欧洲大黄蜂数量正在下降. 未来的预测表明范围会大幅缩小, 斯堪的纳维亚可能成为一个避难所, 这凸显了全球变化缓解政策的必要性.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 息地退化和气候变化是全球生物多样性丧失的主要原因.
- 蜜蜂是重要的授粉者,
- 许多大熊蜂物种受到威胁,
研究的目的:
- 量化欧洲对大黄蜂的过去,现在和未来的生态适应性.
- 评估气候和土地利用变化对大黄蜂种群的影响.
- 根据未来的情况,确定欧洲大黄蜂的潜在避难所.
主要方法:
- 对欧洲大黄蜂的历史和预期生态适应性的分析.
- 在各种气候和土地使用场景下对范围收缩和物种灭绝的建模.
- 对大黄蜂种类的潜在领土损失的评估.
主要成果:
- 自1900年以来,欧洲大黄蜂种群持续下降.
- 预计欧洲范围内的大规模收缩和物种灭绝.
- 到2061年至2080年,38%-76%的"最不关心"大黄蜂物种可能会失去至少30%的适宜地区.
- 斯堪的纳维亚被认为是熊蜂未来的潜在避难所.
结论:
- 全球变化,包括气候和土地利用变化,对欧洲大黄蜂构成严重威胁.
- 有效的全球变化缓解政策对于大黄蜂的保护至关重要.
- 由于其他人为压力因素,蜂群在潜在避难所的长期生存能力仍然不确定.
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