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通过使用合SWAT-BiLSTM方法来改善海河流域气候变化影响评估的每日流量模拟
Xianqi Zhang1,2,3, Yu Qi4, Fang Liu1
1Water Conservancy College, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.
Scientific reports
|September 13, 2023
概括
气候变化正在增加海河流域 (HRB) 的洪水风险. 结合SWAT和BiLSTM的混合水文模型,使用高分辨率的土地使用数据,显著提高了溪流模拟的准确性,预测了未来更高的溪流和城市洪水风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化和城市化正在增加洪水灾害的频率和严重性.
- 海河流域 (HRB) 经历了严重的洪水,影响了经济和社会发展.
- 先进的水文模型对于了解气候影响和告知适应策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过整合基于物理 (SWAT) 和数据驱动 (BiLSTM) 的模型,提高HRB中的流量模拟精度.
- 评估不同土地使用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 数据分辨率对模型性能的影响.
- 评估气候变化对HRB流动的未来影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了三种混合型号:SWAT-D-BiLSTM,SWAT-C-BiLSTM和SWAT-C-BiLSTM与SinoLC-1 (1m LULC) 一起使用.
- SWAT模拟的基地和快速流动;BiLSTM预测的流动. 在SWAT-C-BiLSTM中涉及参数校准.
- 利用30米LULC和1米SinoLC-1数据;使用CMIP6气候模型预测进行未来影响评估.
主要成果:
- 使用SinoLC-1的SWAT-C-BiLSTM获得了最高的精度 (NSE=0.93,R2=0.95校准;NSE=0.92,R2=0.92验证).
- 高分辨率的SinoLC-1数据显著改善了流流模拟性能.
- 预计气候变化将增加HRB流量,特别是在7月至8月,加剧洪水风险.
结论:
- 混合模型,特别是带有高分辨率LULC数据的SWAT-C-BiLSTM,为HRB提供了卓越的流动模拟.
- 气候变化可能会加剧河流流动的变化,并增加HRB的洪水危险.
- 调查结果支持改善应对气候变化的洪水风险管理和城市规划.
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