由于老年和已确定的风险因素,疾病风险有多大?
1Nuffield Department of Population Health, Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
PNAS nexus
|September 14, 2023
概括
没有先前疾病的个体患上新疾病的风险明显低于仅根据年龄和风险因素预测的风险. 这项研究表明,保持无疾病的保护作用.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化和医疗保健改善导致多病症增加.
- 现有的流行病学模型可能无法充分考虑保持无疾病的保护作用.
研究的目的:
- 仅基于年龄和风险因素,调查个人新疾病的数量是否高于预期.
- 开发和应用一种新的流行病学方法,在没有先前条件的情况下量化疾病风险.
主要方法:
- 设计了一种新的流行病学方法,将个人风险预测与Poisson-Binomial模型相结合.
- 预期的新疾病计数被估计为没有先前疾病的个人.
- 观察到的与预测的疾病数量对男性的123种疾病和女性的99种疾病进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 观察到的新疾病数量大约是基于年龄和风险因素预测的2.5倍.
- 这种差异不能归因于统计变异,表明没有先前条件的个体患病风险较低.
- 像高BMI和特定疾病类别 (ICD-10) 的吸烟者等子组的风险差异不同.
结论:
- 没有任何先前疾病的个体在统计学上表现出患有新疾病的风险较低.
- 这一发现强调了保持无疾病状态的重要性.
- 新的经验建模方法可以帮助预测住院情况,并加强传统的流行病学方法.
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