探索碳排放和共同宏观经济决定因素对中国可持续果出口的影响
Zaid Ashiq Khan1,2, Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar1, Aftab Khan1
1College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 14, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 中国是世界上最大的新鲜果生产国和出口国.
- 全球贸易中断,如COVID-19大流行,已经影响了中国的农产品出口.
- 了解宏观经济驱动因素对于维持果出口业绩至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析影响中国果出口的宏观经济决定因素.
- 为了建模经济参数和果出口量之间的因果关系.
- 为增强果出口战略提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 使用动态自回归分布式滞后 (DYARDL) 模拟.
- 采用了来自世界银行和中国国家统计局的1990-2020年年度时间序列数据.
- 分析了果园面积,产量,贸易开放性和投入价格对出口的影响.
主要成果:
- 果果园面积的增加,生产和贸易的开放,在短期和长期内对果出口产生了积极的影响.
- 出口果,农业化学品和农业碳排放的价格下降对长期和短期的果出口产生了积极的影响.
- 迪亚德模拟和图形图解证实了这些发现.
结论:
- 果园的技术进步可以促进生产和环境可持续性.
- 政策干预应考虑贸易开放性和投入成本管理等因素.
- 可持续的做法是保持中国在全球果市场的领先地位的关键.
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