根据护理阶段预测癌症患病率:卫生服务规划的方法方法方法
Silvia Francisci1, Francesco Tursini2, Luigino Dal Maso3
1National Center for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, National Health Institute, Rome, Italy.
Frontiers in oncology
|September 15, 2023
概括
预计癌症患病率将上升,需要更新医疗保健规划. 这项研究引入了一种方法,通过护理阶段预测癌症患者数量,帮助决策者管理未来的癌症护理需求.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 癌症发病率和生存率的上升正在全球范围内增加癌症幸存者的数量.
- 癌症幸存者有各种各样的医疗需求,从初始治疗到长期最低限度的护理.
- 根据护理阶段准确的患病率指标对于医疗保健规划和政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的方法,通过不同的护理阶段来预测短期癌症患病率.
- 为医疗保健规划人员提供服务需求管理的最新指标.
- 通过明智的政策,改善癌症幸存者的经验.
主要方法:
- 结合线性回归模型与COMPREV软件进行流行率预测.
- 使用癌症注册数据来估计在初始,持续和最终护理阶段的患病率.
- 方法通过使用意大利维尼托地区乳腺,结肠直肠和肺癌的数据进行验证.
主要成果:
- 预计2015-2026年间,大多数地区和性别的癌症患病率将增加.
- 年平均患病率变化范围从2.6% (女性,肺癌) 到0.5% (男性,结肠直肠癌).
- 预计男性肺癌患病率将每年下降1.9%;持续护理阶段占主导地位,除了肺癌,最后阶段更为普遍.
结论:
- 拟议的方法提供了一个用户友好的方法来估计未来的癌症医疗保健需求.
- 证实适用于具有足够登记数据 (≥15年) 的常见癌症类型.
- 研究结果支持决策者规划未来的癌症护理,并提高患者的生存率.
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