在阿富汗对非传染性疾病及其风险因素的趋势分析
Narges Neyazi1,2, Ali Mohammad Mosadeghrad3, Maryam Tajvar3
1International Campus, School of Public Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran.
Chronic diseases and translational medicine
|September 15, 2023
概括
非传染性疾病 (NCD) 在阿富汗正在增加,女性的死亡率和风险因素更高. 如果没有干预,到2030年,非传染性疾病将超过可持续发展目标.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 阿富汗面临数十年的冲突,影响基础设施和卫生.
- 2010年,非传染性疾病 (NCD) 占死亡人数的近46%.
- 本研究研究了NCD死亡率趋势和性别差异.
研究的目的:
- 分析2008-2019年阿富汗非传染性疾病死亡率趋势.
- 预测到2030年的NCD死亡率和风险因素流行率.
- 确定导致非传染性疾病的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自2019年全球疾病负担研究的二次数据.
- 应用趋势分析对非传染性疾病死亡率,风险因素归因和残疾年龄 (YLDs) 的趋势分析.
- 从2008-2019年提取的数据和预测到2030年的趋势.
主要成果:
- 非传染性疾病的死亡率增加了50% (2008-2019),预计到2030年将达到54%.
- 一半的NCD死亡是过早的;女性的死亡率和风险因素更高.
- 到2030年,非传染性疾病将占YLD的70%以上.
- 2030年最主要的危险因素:高静脉压,高体重指数,高血糖,高LDL胆固醇和吸烟.
结论:
- 阿富汗不太可能在没有干预的情况下实现NCD的可持续发展目标.
- 预计风险因素流行率和非传染性疾病死亡率的增加.
- 需要紧急,有针对性的干预措施来减轻日益增长的NCD负担.
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