相关实验视频
Updated: Jul 16, 2025

06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
994
对气候适应途径的估值进行实际选择分析,并应用于运输基础设施
Michael V Martello1, Andrew J Whittle2, Perry C Oddo3
1New York District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New York, New York, USA.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 15, 2023
概括
灵活的气候适应投资通过管理海平面上升 (SLR) 和洪水风险的不确定性来提供显著的价值. 珍视这种灵活性对于沿海社区的性和基础设施保护至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 沿海社区面临着气候变化和海平面上升 (SLR) 的日益增加的风险,导致更频繁和更强烈的沿海洪水.
- 现有的适应计划往往忽视了气候预测中的不确定性和适应措施的表现,忽视了灵活实施的财务价值.
- 推迟或分阶段适应投资的选择价值在当前的规划中没有得到充分考虑.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个实际选择分析 (ROA) 框架,以量化灵活气候适应投资的选择价值.
- 将气候条件的不确定性,适应成本,SLR和洪水影响纳入适应战略的估值.
- 以波士顿的区域运输系统作为案例研究来评估沿海适应途径的灵活投资时间的经济效益.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个可概括的实际选项分析 (ROA) 估值框架,以评估适应性投资灵活性.
- 提出并实施了一种计算效率高的洪水损失采样算法,以估计沿海洪水事件造成的损害.
- 应用ROA框架来评估波士顿市交通系统的适应途径,考虑到各种不确定性.
主要成果:
- 灵活实施适应投资提供了显著的选择价值,特别是在近期到中期 (30年以上).
- 在低概率,高后果的沿海洪水场景下观察到最高的选项值.
- 21世纪下半叶的适应途径性能对SLR的不确定性,洪水损失估计和洪水频率高度敏感.
结论:
- 量化不确定性对于沿海适应投资的长期估值至关重要.
- 灵活的适应战略通过管理与气候有关的风险,提高了适应力,并提供了经济效益.
- 在不确定的未来条件下,ROA框架为优化适应计划提供了一个有价值的工具.
相关概念视频
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
66
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
66
Global Climate Change
24.5K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.5K
What is Climate?
18.6K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.6K
Design Example: Alignment of a Road Line Using GIS
66
The alignment of a road line using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a critical process in civil engineering, combining advanced technology with practical decision-making. This methodology begins with the collection of geospatial data, including information on land cover, geomorphology, drainage patterns, slope, and contour details. Such data is typically acquired through satellite imagery and GIS tools, offering a comprehensive understanding of the terrain.Once the data is gathered, it...
66
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.7K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.7K
Carbon-dioxide Fixation
37
Carbon dioxide fixation in prokaryotes enables the assimilation of inorganic carbon into organic molecules, supporting biosynthetic pathways, sustaining ecosystems, and contributing to the global carbon cycle. It also has industrial applications in carbon capture and bioproduct synthesis. Autotrophic organisms rely on this process to utilize CO₂ as a carbon source in diverse environments.The Calvin CycleThe Calvin cycle is the most widespread carbon fixation mechanism, primarily used by...
37

