检测恐怖主义活动中的趋势和冲击
Rafael Prieto-Curiel1, Olivier Walther2, Ewan Davies3
1Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria.
PloS one
|September 15, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的方法来分析像恐怖主义这样的稀疏时间事件. 调查结果表明,目前的安全政策对非洲主要恐怖组织无效.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 标准时间序列分析与稀疏的事件数据作斗争,限制了对恐怖主义时间模式的理解.
- 现有的方法不适合分析像恐怖袭击这样的低频时间事件.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种用于分析低频时间事件,特别是恐怖主义的新技术.
- 通过其他方法检测恐怖组织活动中不可见的趋势和冲击.
- 分析博科圣地和沙巴的强度和战略转变.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种基于累积曲线和梯度的新技术,用于分析稀疏的时间事件.
- 采用了一种代算法,使用一段线性函数来检测趋势和冲击.
- 利用武装冲突位置和事件数据项目 (ACLED) 的分类政治暴力数据.
主要成果:
- 该方法成功地检测到恐怖组织能力和攻击模式的变化.
- 分析强调了基于攻击方向性的政府战略的重大变化.
- 确定了博科圣地 (包括ISWAP) 和al-shabaab变革的关键时刻.
结论:
- 安全政策在很大程度上未能减少博科圣地和沙巴的力量.
- 这种新的技术为低频事件的时间模式提供了更好的见解.
- 了解战略转变对于有效的反恐政策至关重要.
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