限制谷物贸易对农业,生物能源和水资源的影响以及气候变化的影响
Ying Zhang1, Stephanie Waldhoff1, Marshall Wise1
1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland, United States of America.
PloS one
|September 15, 2023
概括
全球对农产品的贸易限制对谷物消费的影响远大于气候变化. 到2050年消除进口依赖可能会使全球谷物贸易减少一半,影响水和生物能源系统.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 全球供应链的全球供应链.
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
背景情况:
- 国际贸易创造了复杂的全球供应链,对农业,水和生物能源产生重大影响.
- 这些合系统内的相互作用往往是非线性的,难以观察.
- 外部影响,如贸易限制和气候变化,可以在多个部门连续发生.
研究的目的:
- 分析人类引起的贸易干扰和物理气候影响对农业-生物能源-水系统的互动影响.
- 在长期预测中区分单个和联合扰动的后果.
- 了解系统响应的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 在农业贸易 (限制) 和气候 (影响作物产量) 中引入系统性干扰.
- 独立地和组合地探索扰动.
- 评估系统响应的长期预测.
主要成果:
- 农业贸易的限制,特别是谷物进口依赖,导致谷物消费的变化比气候变化的影响更大.
- 到2050年消除进口依赖的情景将使全球谷物贸易减少约50%,生产和消费有小幅下降 (4%).
- 在零进口依赖情景下,全球灌用水消耗增加3%,玉米乙醇生产减少7%.
结论:
- 进口依赖制约显著改变了全球农业贸易,用水和生物能源生产.
- 气候变化通常导致国内价格上和谷物消费下降,进口依赖加剧了进口地区的这些影响.
- 贸易和气候变化的综合影响在区域上异质,受农业生产能力 (强化/扩展) 的影响.
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