印度-太平洋极端降雨的传播途径是由太平洋海面温度调节的
Felix M Strnad1, Jakob Schlör2, Ruth Geen3
1Machine Learning in Climate Science, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany. felix.strnad@uni-tuebingen.de.
Nature communications
|September 15, 2023
概括
玻里亚夏季季内振荡 (BSISO) 驱动印度-太平洋地区的极端降雨. 机器学习识别了三种BSISO模式,揭示了太平洋海面温度如何影响其轨道,以改善极端天气预报.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 印度-太平洋地区降雨极端的季内变化主要是由北极夏季季内振荡 (BSISO) 驱动的.
- BSISO涉及从印度洋到西太平洋的对流降雨的准周期性向东北传播.
- 准确预测BSISO的时空位置对于季后预测极端降雨事件至关重要,但由于对其传播动态的不完全理解,仍然具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 为了描述与BSISO相关的极端降雨的传播途径,在印度-太平洋地区.
- 使用无监督机器学习识别BSISO传播的不同模式.
- 调查太平洋海面温度对BSISO传播模式的影响及其对极端降雨预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 应用无监督机器学习技术来分析降雨数据并识别极端事件传播模式.
- 将BSISO传播的特征分为三个不同的模式:东北向,东方阻塞和准静止.
- 分析太平洋海面温度模式 (例如,类似厄尔尼诺现象,类似拉尼娜现象) 与已识别的BSISO传播模式之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 确定三种不同的BSISO传播模式:东北向,东方阻塞和准静止.
- 证明太平洋海面温度显著调节BSISO的传播.
- 类似厄尔尼诺的情况有利于准静止模式,而类似拉尼娜的情况有利于向东阻塞模式,通过局部翻转循环的湿静态能量变化来调解.
结论:
- 无监督机器学习有效地描述了BSISO传播模式,提高了我们对极端降雨驱动因素的理解.
- 太平洋海面温度在调节BSISO路径方面发挥着关键作用,为区域气候变化提供了洞察力.
- 这些发现为开发印度-太平洋极端降雨预警系统奠定了基础,提前四周可预警.
相关概念视频
01:12Precipitation Processes
484
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
484
01:50Global Climate Change
24.5K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.5K
01:17Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.8K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.8K
01:16What is Climate?
18.6K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.6K
01:07Propagation of Waves
2.4K
When a wave propagates from one medium to another, part of it may get reflected in the first medium, and part of it may get transmitted to the second medium. In such a case, the interface of the two mediums can be considered as a boundary that is neither fixed nor free.
Consider a scenario where a wave propagates from a string of low linear mass density to a string of high linear mass density. In such a case, the reflected wave is out of phase with respect to the incident wave, however the...
Consider a scenario where a wave propagates from a string of low linear mass density to a string of high linear mass density. In such a case, the reflected wave is out of phase with respect to the incident wave, however the...
2.4K
01:03Precipitation Gravimetry
6.7K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
6.7K