对于一个非线性确定性-随机类的小数顺序拉萨热病模型的新见解,具有不同的内核
Saima Rashid1,2, Shazia Karim3, Ali Akgül2,4,5
1Department of Mathematics, Government College University, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|September 15, 2023
概括
拉萨热,一个致命的动物传播的西非出血病毒,是使用一个新的框架建模的. 研究结果显示,联合传播途径显著增加了疾病的影响,突显了复杂的流行病动态.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 拉萨热是一种严重的,往往致命的,西非特有的出血性病毒感染.
- 动物群体是主要的储存库,通过各种途径传染给人类.
- 了解拉萨热的传播动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为拉萨热病流行病开发一个分析决定性-随机的框架.
- 调查各种传播过程的影响,包括被忽视的途径,如气溶传播.
- 为了分析直接和随后的传染性的作用,使用分数计算内核.
主要方法:
- 采用非线性普通微分方程系统用于确定性建模.
- 集成的随机元件以捕捉流行病传播的随机变化.
- 利用分数计算与法,指数衰减和米塔格-莱弗勒核来建模传染性.
- 应用了随机的利亚普诺夫函数方法,以确保解决方案的存在和独特性.
主要成果:
- 该模型展示了稳定状态和特有平衡,独立于基本繁殖数.
- 随机结构从任何积极的初始条件中确保一个独特的全局正的解决方案.
- 已经建立了足够的条件,使得埃尔戈迪静止分布的存在和独特性.
- 分数和随机发现表明,结合所有传播方式,拉萨热病的影响会放大.
结论:
- 拉萨热的复杂动态受最初的人口规模和传播严重程度的影响.
- 综合传播途径,当分数和随机建模时,显著增加了整体疾病负担.
- 这项研究为了解和潜在地减轻拉萨热病爆发提供了强大的数学框架.
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