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在伊比利亚半岛的表面风速预测中的不确定性:CMIP6 GCM与WRF-RCM相比
Miguel Andres-Martin1, Cesar Azorin-Molina1, Cheng Shen2
1Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana), Moncada, Spain.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|September 16, 2023
概括
在伊比利亚半岛上预测的近地风速 (SWS) 变化显示了模型差异. 全球气候模型 (GCM) 和区域气候模型 (RCM) 提供不确定的未来风速预测,需要谨慎的解释.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 准确的近地风速 (SWS) 预测对于可再生能源和气候影响评估至关重要.
- 之前的气候建模研究已经显示了SWS预测的变化.
研究的目的:
- 评估21世纪在伊比利亚半岛预测的近地风速 (SWS) 变化和变化.
- 将全球气候模型 (GCM) 与高分辨率区域气候模型 (RCM) 的性能进行比较.
主要方法:
- 对比合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) GCMs与动态缩小RCM (WRF-CESM2) 在20公里分辨率.
- 分析了各种共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 的SWS预测,包括SSP126,SSP245,SSP370和SSP585.
- 与1985-2014年观察到的SWS数据对比,评估了模型准确性.
主要成果:
- GCM高估了观察到的SWS (1985-2014),而WRF-CESM2 RCM低估了它.
- 在高排放场景 (SSP370,SSP585) 下,GCM预测SWS下降,但在较低的场景 (SSP126,SSP245) 下显示振荡.
- 在WRF-CESM2 RCM项目中,在高排放SSP585情景下增加SWS,与GCM预测形成鲜明对比.
结论:
- 在伊比利亚半岛上预测的21世纪SWS变化在不同的气候模型和场景中表现出显著的不确定性.
- 与GCM相比,动态缩小的RCM不一定会提高SWS投影精度.
- 由于模型的相互依赖性和不确定性,未来的SWS预测应谨慎解释.
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