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是否叫车服务比出租车更安全? 一种多变量空间方法,适应暴露不确定性
Guocong Zhai1, Kun Xie1, Hong Yang2
1Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Old Dominion University, 129C Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|September 17, 2023
概括
乘车服务显示,轻伤事故的风险高于出租车,尽管严重伤害风险相似. 这项研究引入了一个新的模型,使用暴露数据来比较叫车和出租车的安全性.
科学领域:
- 运输安全运输安全
- 空间统计的空间统计.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 对于叫车服务和出租车而言,存在有限的比较安全研究.
- 准确的特定模式的暴露数据至关重要,但对于安全建模来说很难获得.
- 撞击频率表现出空间和固有的相关性,使分析复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的统计模型,用于比较乘车和出租车服务的安全性能.
- 为了考虑到暴露数据中的测量错误和碰撞频率的空间相关性.
- 确定影响两种模式撞车风险的因素.
主要方法:
- 提出了一种多变量条件自回归模型,其中包含暴露的测量误差 (MVCARME).
- 利用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似来进行高效的模型估计.
- 芝加哥的受雇人口普查区域作为空间单位,使用2019年乘车和出租车旅行数据进行暴露估计 (车辆里程).
主要成果:
- 租车和出租车事故与交通,土地使用和人口因素有关.
- MVCARME模型显著优于基于DIC,WAIC,MAE和RMSE的传统模型 (负二项式,MCAR).
- 与出租车相比,乘车服务显示,轻微伤害事故的风险较高.
结论:
- MVCARME模型提供了一个强大的方法来评估和比较不同运输方式的安全性.
- 打车服务可能需要加强安全管理策略,特别是在轻微伤害事件中.
- 结果为研究人员,从业人员和城市移动安全政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解.
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