超越气候危机的效率陷:勘探开发权衡和反弹效应
Jose Segovia-Martin1,2, Felix Creutzig3,4, James Winters1,5
1School of Collective Intelligence, M6 Polytechnic University (SCI-UM6P), Rabat, 11103 Morocco.
概括
提高效率可能会加剧气候变化,原因是杰文斯悖论. 如果不减少需求,勘探开发战略可能会导致不可持续的资源消耗和温室气体排放.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
背景情况:
- 经济增长推动能源使用和资源消耗,主要来自化石燃料,将其与温室气体 (GHG) 排放和气候变化联系起来.
- 杰文斯悖论表明,提高资源效率可以矛盾地增加整体消费,尤其是弹性需求.
- 现有的反弹效应研究缺乏关于强化学习对环境的影响的研究.
研究的目的:
- 模拟微层次勘探开发战略对效率,消费和可持续性的影响.
- 在数学和模拟框架内分析直接和间接的反弹效应.
- 调查效率提升与潜在的不可持续发展模式之间的联系.
主要方法:
- 开发一个数学模型和计算机模拟器.
- 分析微层次的勘探开发策略.
- 在模型中包括直接和间接的反弹效应.
主要成果:
- 为了提高效率,最佳的勘探开发策略可以在不减少需求的情况下推动不可持续的发展.
- 间接反弹效应会影响各个领域的初级能源 (PE) 消耗,温室气体排放和资源使用.
- 由于反弹效应,单独提高效率可能不会导致可持续性.
结论:
- 减少需求的措施对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 了解间接反弹效应是避免效率陷和实现可持续发展目标的关键.
- 该研究强调了实现可持续发展目标的复杂相互依存关系.
相关概念视频
Social Traps
22.4K
Social traps are negative situations where people get caught in a direction or relationship that later proves to be unpleasant, with no easy way to back out of or avoid. The concept was orignally introduced by John Platt who applied psychology to Garrett Hardin's "Tragedy of the Commons", where in New England herd owners could let their cattle graze in the common ground. This situation seems like a good idea, but an individual could have an advantage. If they owned...
22.4K
Threats to Biodiversity
22.4K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.4K
Habitat Fragmentation
17.6K
Habitat fragmentation describes the division of a more extensive, continuous habitat into smaller, discontinuous areas. Human activities such as land conversion, as well as slower geological processes leading to changes in the physical environment, are the two leading causes of habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation process typically follows the same steps: perforation, dissection, fragmentation, shrinkage, and attrition.
17.6K
Production Efficiency
16.9K
Net production efficiency (NPE) is the efficiency at which organisms assimilate energy into biomass for the next trophic level. Due to low metabolic rates and less energy spent on thermoregulatory processes, the NPE of ectotherms (cold-blooded animals) is 10 times higher than endotherms (warm-blooded animals).
16.9K
Optimal Foraging
12.1K
How animals obtain and eat their food is called foraging behavior. Foraging can include searching for plants and hunting for prey and depends on the species and environment.
12.1K
Trophic Efficiency
20.7K
Trophic level transfer efficiency (TLTE) is a measure of the total energy transfer from one trophic level to the next. Due to extensive energy loss as metabolic heat, an average of only 10% of the original energy obtained is passed on to the next level. This pattern of energy loss severely limits the possible number of trophic levels in a food chain.
20.7K


