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分析三个干预措施对肯尼亚城市水果和蔬菜消费的潜在影响,使用参与式系统建模
Charles F Nicholson1, Eva Monterrosa2
1Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 442 Animal Science Building, 1675 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI53706, USA.
Public health nutrition
|September 18, 2023
概括
肯尼亚城市的参与式建模表明,增加农场产量可能会最大程度地促进蔬菜消费. 然而,这种干预可能会对农场利产生负面影响,这突显了公共卫生营养战略的复杂权衡.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 营养 公共卫生 营养
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 系统科学 系统科学
背景情况:
- 水果和蔬菜 (F&V) 消费对公众健康至关重要.
- 肯尼亚城市面临着增加F&V摄入量的挑战.
- 利益相关者的参与对于有效的干预设计至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过参与式建模,评估三项干预措施对肯尼亚城市的F&V消费的潜在影响.
- 通过利益关方的合作,确定提高蔬菜消费的有效策略.
主要方法:
- 集团模型建设 (GMB) 开发了一种蔬菜消费决定因素的概念模型.
- 系统动力学 (SD) 模拟了三项干预措施下的2020-2024年消费模拟.
- 利益相关者研讨会整合了各种价值链观点.
主要成果:
- 消费者意识的提高带来了适度的消费增长 (5g/人/天).
- 减少收获后损失减少了由于成本增加而导致的消费.
- 增加农场产量显示出最大的消费影响 (40克/人/天),但农场利面临风险.
结论:
- 参与式建模和模拟有效地为F&V消费提供了干预重点信息.
- 增加农场产量为增加蔬菜摄入量提供了最重要的潜力.
- 干预设计必须考虑对利益相关者的经济影响,以实现可持续的公共卫生结果.
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