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评估阿根廷当前和未来极端温度所导致的死亡率
Christian García-Witulski1, Mariano Javier Rabassa2, Mariana Conte Grand3
1Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina, Argentina; Universidad Espíritu Santo, Ecuador.
Economics and human biology
|September 18, 2023
概括
在阿根廷,极端温度显著增加死亡率,热量比寒冷带来更大的风险. 预计未来的气候变化将大大加剧这些与天气有关的健康损害和经济成本.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响评估
- 公共卫生经济学 公共卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 极端温度,无论是热还是冷,对人类健康构成重大风险.
- 了解与天气有关的死亡率带来的经济负担对于公共卫生政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析阿根廷极端温度对当前和未来的与天气有关的健康损害.
- 量化温度相关死亡率对经济的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用全国范围的死亡数据集 (2010-2019) 和ERA5气象数据.
- 在两个气候场景 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 下,用于未来死亡率预测的NASA NEX-GDDP.
- 使用统计寿命的价值评估经济损失.
主要成果:
- 极端温度增加全因死亡率;更热的天气比较冷的天气更大影响.
- 老年人面临更高的死亡风险. 极端寒冷造成的年度损害占GDP的0.64%,而热量损害占GDP的0.11%.
- 根据RCP8.5的未来预测,由于更热的日子,总损失增加了1.45%.
结论:
- 极端温度对阿根廷目前和未来的经济负担很大.
- 气候变化场景预测死亡率和经济损失的加剧,特别是在更高的排放路径下.
- 政策干预可能是必要的,以减轻极端天气事件对健康和经济的影响.
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