跨国分析需要额外的控制来解释国家的非独立性
Scott Claessens1, Thanos Kyritsis2, Quentin D Atkinson3,4
1School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand. scott.claessens@gmail.com.
Nature communications
|September 18, 2023
概括
跨国研究往往忽略了非独立性,导致错误的阳性. 即使得到解决,常见的方法也不足,可能会使许多经济和心理学发现无效.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
背景情况:
- 跨国分析检查了国家结果的变化,但由于相互联系 (例如,空间接近,共同的祖先) 经常违反统计独立性假设.
- 这种违规行为会增加错误阳性率,这是两个多世纪以来一个公认的问题.
- 尽管受到认可,但经济学和心理学领域的跨国研究往往未能充分解决非独立性的问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估经济学和心理学跨国研究对非独立性控制的程度.
- 评估用于控制非独立性的常用方法的有效性.
- 根据强有力的非独立性控制,重新评估之前的跨国调查结果.
主要方法:
- 对经济发展和价值观的100项引用率最高的跨国研究进行系统审查.
- 模拟研究评估不同非独立性控制方法的有效性.
- 使用全球近距离矩阵重新分析了12个先前的跨国相关性.
主要成果:
- 在具有高影响力的跨国研究中,对非独立性的控制很少见.
- 最常用的方法不足以减少非独立数据中的假阳性.
- 重新分析显示,在对非独立性进行控制后,一半的原始估计不是显著的.
结论:
- 经济学和心理学的跨国研究往往不充分地解决了非独立问题.
- 现有的统计方法可能不足以缓解假阳性问题的问题.
- 敦促研究人员实施强有力的非独立性控制,以确保跨国发现的有效性.
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