重新审视未来的能源转型项目与"煤气"能源项目:通过生命周期项目成本方法进行评估
1School of Accounting, Shanxi Vocational University of Engineering Science and Technology, Jinzhong, 030619, Shanxi, China. kjxgaoy@126.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|September 18, 2023
概括
煤气化项目提供短期收益,但可能不会在长期经济上可持续. 政策制定者必须评估生命周期成本,考虑诸如天然气价格和环境恢复等因素,以实现可持续的能源未来.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 环境科学环境科学
- 项目管理 项目管理
背景情况:
- 煤炭到天然气的转型作为能源战略被探索.
- 中国的四个主要煤层气 (CSG) 项目影响了当地居民.
- 社会成本和对当地社区的经济影响是关键问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估从煤炭到天然气能源转型计划的生命周期项目成本.
- 确定这些项目的可持续性和经济可行性.
- 分析社会成本和社区影响.
主要方法:
- 在受影响地区对428名受访者进行了跨部门调查.
- 结构方程建模 (SEM) 用于分析调查数据.
- 量子过程估计 (QPE) 用于成本分析.
主要成果:
- 社区报告增加了经济差距,未来信心低,生活水平下降.
- 高比例的受访者担心他们的城市的未来 (77.3%),地下水的影响 (77.4%) 和生活成本上升 (83.4%).
- 生命周期成本分析揭示了由于天然气价格,碳税和退役而导致的潜在长期经济不可持续性.
结论:
- 煤气化项目可能只能提供短期的经济效益.
- 长期的经济可持续性是可疑的,受到气体价格波动和环境成本的影响.
- 对于决策者和能源公司来说,在投资这些过渡项目之前,仔细评估生命周期成本至关重要.
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