当领导者披露不确定性时:表达对决策的内部和外部不确定性的影响
Erik Løhre1, Karl Halvor Teigen2
1Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour, BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo, Norway.
概括
承认不确定性可以使领导者看起来更有能力,如果作为外部 (例如",它是不确定的"),而不是内部 (例如",我不确定"). 这项研究探讨了信任和不确定性下的决策.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 组织行为 组织行为
背景情况:
- 决策者经常投射信心,但许多选择涉及固有的不确定性.
- 信任和感知能力对于领导力有效性至关重要.
- 沟通不确定性对决策者的看法的影响尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查决策者所传达的不确定性类型是否会影响人们对其能力和可信度的看法.
- 探索矛盾的发现,人们更喜欢领导人对不确定性持开放态度,但当他们表达时,可能会认为他们不那么有能力.
主要方法:
- 进行了一系列实验,以评估不同的不确定性表达 (内部与外部) 如何影响感知到的领导能力.
- 参与者根据他们对不确定性的沟通来评价领导者的能力和可信度.
- 最后一项研究考察了决策者愿意根据其感知类型和预期后果表达不确定性.
主要成果:
- 表达外部不确定性 (与随机性/复杂性相关) 的领导者被认为比表达内部不确定性 (缺乏知识/信念) 的领导者更有能力.
- 总体效应大小 (d=0.45) 表明外部不确定性表达对感知能力产生了显著的积极影响.
- 参与者矛盾地说,领导者*应该*表达不确定性,但他们的评价却相反.
- 决策者更愿意表达不确定性,当它被认为是外部的.
结论:
- 将不确定性作为外部而不是内部的沟通可以提高对领导者能力和可信度的看法.
- 关于不确定性的公开沟通的理想与表达这种不确定性的领导人的实际评价之间存在差异.
- 了解不确定性的类型对于决策者来说至关重要,他们的目标是建立信任,同时承认模两可.
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