在区域一级共同监测和概率定量极端气候事件的通用程序
Aamina Batool1, Zulfiqar Ali2, Muhammad Mohsin1
1College of Statistical Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|September 19, 2023
概括
气候变化带来了严重的威胁,如干旱和热浪. 一个新的指数,SCICE,共同监测这些极端事件,揭示干燥和热的条件比潮湿和冷的更有可能发生.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 干旱和热浪是气候变化的重大威胁,它们往往与相似的天气模式和相互加剧的影响有关.
- 有效的区域水资源管理和政策制定需要共同监测和量化这些极端事件.
- 了解干旱和热浪之间的相互作用对于气候适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的指数,气候极端的标准化复合指数 (SCICE),用于共同监测和极端气候事件的概率量化.
- 评估区域一级干旱和热浪事件的联合发生概率.
- 验证SCICE作为区域气候极端分析的强大统计工具.
主要方法:
- 气候极端的标准化综合指数 (SCICE) 的开发.
- 作为SCICE的核心程序,标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化温度指数 (STI) 的联合标准化.
- 在区域干旱和热浪分析中应用和比较评估SCICE.
主要成果:
- 在区域一级,SCICE 能够有效地联合监测和概率量化干旱和热浪的情况.
- 结果表明,与湿和冷事件相比,干燥和热事件的联合发生的长期概率明显更高.
- 对比评估验证了SCICE作为区域气候极端分析的紧有效的统计方法.
结论:
- SCICE指数有效地描述和评估干旱和热浪的联合监测.
- 这项研究提供了一种全面的方法,以了解气候极端的综合影响.
- 面对气候变化,SCICE为可持续发展政策制定和水资源管理提供了宝贵的见解.
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