来自东南欧的医疗大脑流失:使用数字人口统计学预测卫生工作者移民
1Catholic University of Croatia, Zagreb, Croatia.
JMIRx med
|September 19, 2023
概括
像谷歌趋势这样的数字人口统计工具可以预测来自克罗地亚和西巴尔干地区的医疗保健工作者移民. 该方法提供可靠的预测,以解决潜在的劳动力短缺问题.
科学领域:
- 数字人口统计数字人口统计
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 移民研究是关于移民的研究.
背景情况:
- 从克罗地亚和西巴尔干 (WB) 到德国和奥地利等国家的医疗保健工作者 (HW) 移民是一个重大问题.
- 现有的HW移民官方数据收集方法缓慢,经常延迟,特别是在COVID-19流行病等危机期间.
- 高职工的移民加剧了西银行地区现有的劳动力短缺,影响了医疗保健系统的能力.
研究的目的:
- 评估谷歌趋势数据作为预测HW迁移的工具的有效性.
- 分析从克罗地亚和世界银行到德国和奥地利的医生和护士的流动模式.
- 突出增加移民对西行地区医疗保健劳动力的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用谷歌趋势分析了2010年1月至2020年12月与迁移相关的搜索查询频率.
- 标准化了与移民有关的搜索数据,并将谷歌趋势指数与官方移民统计数据进行了比较.
- 评估了谷歌趋势数据与官方HW迁移数据的相关性和预测潜力.
主要成果:
- 在谷歌趋势搜索查询和来自塞尔维亚,波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那 (B&H) 和克罗地亚的HW移民官方统计数据之间发现了正线性关联.
- 克罗地亚的"求职+护士"等特定搜索词与移民护士的官方数据有很强的相关性.
- 该研究表明,谷歌趋势数据可以可靠地预测HW移民的未来趋势.
结论:
- 谷歌趋势提供了一种有价值的实时方法来估计和预测HW迁移,有助于劳动力规划.
- 这些发现强调需要更新世界卫生组织的HW短缺国家名单,包括克罗地亚和世界银行国家.
- 解决高职工的移民问题需要制定战略,以平衡欧盟的自由流动与获得医疗保健的权利和区域劳动力稳定.
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