基于功能方法的传染过程的不确定性分析
Dunia López-Pintado1, Sara López-Pintado2, Iván García-Milán3
1Economics Department, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, 41013, Seville, Spain. dlopez@upo.es.
Scientific reports
|September 19, 2023
概括
由于随机传染,预测疾病传播具有挑战性. 最大的不确定性发生在流行病值,受网络密度和传染性的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 随机过程 随机过程
背景情况:
- 预测疾病,产品或思想在人口中的传播本身很困难.
- 对传染过程的有限观察阻碍了对未来事件的准确预测.
- 传染的随机性质导致不可预测的结果,可能导致政策不准确.
研究的目的:
- 分析传染过程中的不可预测性和不确定性.
- 为功能数据开发一种新的非参数的方差测量方法.
- 调查网络属性和过程传染性对不确定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 对传染动态进行广泛的模拟研究.
- 定义一种使用加权基于深度的中心区域的新型非参数方差测量方法.
- 在小世界网络上应用敏感-感染-敏感 (SIS) 流行病学模型.
主要成果:
- 传染的最大不确定性是在流行病值观察到的.
- 网络密度和过程传染性显著且互补地影响传染不确定性.
- 网络的随机性结构对传染不确定性的影响很小.
结论:
- 了解传染不确定性对于准确的预测和有效的政策制定至关重要.
- 开发的差异度提供了一个新的方法来量化功能传染数据中的不确定性.
- 网络结构和传输动态是传染不可预测性的关键驱动因素.
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