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中国省级碳预算的空间异质性和场景模拟
Zhenyue Liu1, Jinbing Zhang1, Pengyan Zhang2,3
1College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, Henan, China.
Carbon balance and management
|September 20, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 中国的区域碳预算和经济脱有很大差异.
- 了解这些差异是实现国家碳峰值 (2030) 和中立 (2060) 目标的关键.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国碳预算的空间异质性.
- 研究影响碳排放与经济发展脱的因素.
- 在不同的场景下预测未来的碳排放.
主要方法:
- 使用的夜光和土地使用数据.
- 使用模型估计,脱分析和场景模拟.
- 检查了空间相关性和影响因素.
主要成果:
- 碳赤字从2000年至2018年增加,具有积极的空间相关性.
- 脱状态最初有所改善,然后恶化.
- 能源强度,人口密度和建成土地面积影响了脱.
- 一个低碳场景预计2027年将出现早期的碳峰值 (6479.27亿).
结论:
- 省份的碳排放与经济发展有积极的相关性.
- 优化经济结构和控制建筑土地扩张至关重要.
- 需要技术进步和工业重组来降低能源强度.
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