从以事件为基础的视角来识别洪水特征的变化及其原因在中部太湖盆地
Shuang Luo1, Qiang Wang1, Youpeng Xu1
1School of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
The Science of the total environment
|September 20, 2023
概括
气候变化和城市化正在增加城市平原的洪水率. 人类活动比气候变化更严重地影响洪水峰值和洪水发生率,需要适应性水利管理策略.
科学领域:
- 水文和环境科学 水文和环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市化地区面临由于气候变化和土地表面修改而改变的洪水动态.
- 调查城市洪水是复杂的,因为非雨水驱动的流量变化和对洪水速率变化的理解有限.
研究的目的:
- 检测洪水特征的变化,以应对一个高度城市化地区的降雨.
- 量化气候变化与人类活动对洪水变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 从1970年到2020年,分析了四个洪水水文图表指标 (峰值,增量,上升率,下降率).
- 应用减排方法来分离气候变化和人类活动的影响.
- 使用随机森林模型量化因素重要性.
主要成果:
- 观测到洪水特征 (除增量外) 的显著上升趋势.
- 洪水对累积降雨的反应更强烈.
- 人类活动对洪水峰值和洪水速率的影响比气候变化更大.
结论:
- 城市化地区的洪水特征受到人类活动的重大影响,包括土地利用变化和水利工程.
- 了解这些驱动因素对于有效的水资源管理和城市环境中的洪水减缓至关重要.
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