利用在线哀悼和葬礼搜索量推断COVID-19大流行期间中国的过度死亡率
Li Huang1, Oliver Zhen Li2,3, Ximing Yin4
1Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Scientific reports
|September 20, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 中国的零COVID政策旨在抑制SARS-CoV-2的传播.
- 该政策于2022年12月取消,导致感染率迅速增加.
- 估计过度死亡率对于了解大流行影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计中国在COVID-19大流行期间的过度死亡率.
- 分析零COVID政策对死亡率趋势的影响.
- 为了量化不同政策阶段下挽救或丧失的生命.
主要方法:
- 使用在线搜索卷开发了一个哀悼和葬礼索引.
- 包括搜索术语如"告"",火葬"和"逝世".
- 通过将搜索量与大流行前水平进行比较,推断出过度死亡率.
主要成果:
- 在零COVID后的3个月 (2022年12月至2023年2月) 发生了大约7.12万例过度死亡.
- 在35个月的零COVID期间,估计过度死亡人数为 -1,480,000 (挽救的生命).
- 据估计,通过延迟感染,可能挽救了约767,000人的生命.
结论:
- 中国的COVID-19经验显示,在政策放松后,死亡率大幅上升.
- 零-COVID制度似乎通过防止早期广泛感染来挽救生命.
- 估计强调了严格的控制措施和死亡率结果之间的权衡.
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