时空生态系统服务:应对结构变化 (伊朗拉希扬的一个案例研究)
Mahdis Sadat1, Esmail Salehi2, Mohammad Javad Amiri2
1Environmental Planning, College of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Integrated environmental assessment and management
|September 21, 2023
概括
土地使用变化显著减少了生态系统服务,如碳捕获和洪水减缓. 持续的城市和农业扩张威胁着未来的生态系统健康和功能.
科学领域:
- 评估生态系统服务的评估
- 生态网络分析 生态网络分析
- 土地使用变化建模
背景情况:
- 生态系统提供影响人类福祉的基本服务.
- 了解生态系统的结构和功能对于提供服务至关重要.
- 土地利用的变化可以改变生态系统过程和服务提供.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个统一的模型,整合生态系统服务估值,生态网络和相关性分析.
- 研究生态系统结构,功能和过程中的变化.
- 在土地使用变化场景下量化和预测关键生态系统服务.
主要方法:
- 生态系统服务综合评估 (IVES) 框架.
- 生态网络 (EN) 分析.生态网络 (EN) 分析.
- 蜂自动机和马尔科夫链 (CA-Markov) 模型用于土地使用预测.
- 相关性分析将土地利用与生态系统服务联系起来.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2020年,生态系统服务 (碳封存,土壤减少,洪水减缓) 的量化显著减少.
- 如果目前的土地使用趋势持续下去,预计到2040年生态系统服务将继续下降.
- 观察到的土地利用变化导致核心森林面积减少,孤立地块增加,城市/农业扩张.
- 证明了改变的相互作用和整体生态系统服务 (ESs) 的减少.
结论:
- 由土地使用转移驱动的生态系统的结构变化直接影响生态系统服务.
- 持续的土地利用变化对长期提供重要的生态系统服务构成重大威胁.
- 开发的模型有效地将土地使用动态与生态系统服务提供和生态网络变化联系起来.
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