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随机古气候学:模拟EPICA冰芯气候记录的模型
N D B Keyes1,2, L T Giorgini3, J S Wettlaufer1,2,3,4
1Program in Applied Mathematics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|September 21, 2023
概括
古气候数据显示,二氧化碳和温度相互稳定,以及甲和氧化等温室气体. 然而,这些气体会破坏气候系统的稳定,影响冰川周期.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 纪冰川周期在多个时间尺度上表现出复杂的波动.
- 冰芯数据,例如来自欧洲南极冰项目 (EPICA) Dome-C的冰芯数据,提供了关键的气候变量长期记录.
研究的目的:
- 分析和建模古气候时间序列的随机行为.
- 评估二氧化碳,甲,氧化和冰川周期期间的温度之间的合和相互关系.
- 评估物理气候过程的稳定性和模型忠实性.
主要方法:
- 应用到80万年EPICA Dome-C数据的多分形时间加权延迟波动分析.
- 建模时间序列作为一维周期性非自主随机动态系统.
- 开发一个四变量模型,具有交变的合项和响应函数.
主要成果:
- 分别在10万年冰川周期以下和以上确定了明显的近红色噪声和白色噪声行为.
- 发现二氧化碳和温度相互稳定,甲/氧化.
- 发现甲和氧化相互破坏稳定,以及二氧化碳/温度.
结论:
- 冰川的步伐主要是由二氧化碳和温度驱动的.
- 与甲和氧化排放相关的陆地生物圈反,调节了冰川周期.
- 这项研究证实了与古气候数据一致的间变稳定关系.
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