减少卡特尔招募是降低墨西哥暴力的唯一途径
Rafael Prieto-Curiel1, Gian Maria Campedelli2, Alejandro Hope3
1Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria.
概括
墨西哥的毒品集团每周招募350-370名成员, 越来越多的人被监禁,
科学领域:
- 犯罪学
- 社会学
- 政治科学
背景情况:
- 墨西哥卡特尔因内部冲突和监禁而面临严重的成员流失.
- 在过去的十年里, 卡特尔组织的暴力行为依然存在,
- 了解卡特尔的性及其对暴力的影响对于公共安全和政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查墨西哥卡特尔规模变化的动态.
- 确定推动卡特尔招募和保留的主要因素.
- 分析卡特尔规模,暴力和国家无能之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 在墨西哥使用了十年的杀人,失踪和监禁数据.
- 包含有关卡特尔互动和冲突模式的信息.
- 开发了一个模型来分析招募,国家无能,冲突和和作为卡特尔规模的驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 到2022年, 墨西哥卡特尔估计有16万至18万5千名成员, 成为主要雇主.
- 卡特尔需要每周招募350-370名员工来弥补总体损失并避免崩.
- 增加国家无能 (监禁) 发现与更高的谋杀率和更大的卡特尔成员关系.
结论:
- 卡特尔的弹性是通过持续的大量招聘来维持的.
- 国家无能化策略可能无意中增加暴力和卡特尔规模.
- 减少招募是减少卡特尔成员和减少暴力的潜在途径.
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