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环境随机性的变化极大地影响了掠食者-猎物系统的生存能力和灭绝时间,猎物群体凝聚力很高

Tao Feng¹, Russell Milne², Hao Wang²

¹School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225002, PR China.

Mathematical biosciences

|September 21, 2023

概括

环境随机性影响掠食者-猎物系统的临界点. 增加的噪音往往会增加灭绝的风险,但中间噪音可以有利于有利的状态,帮助保护工作.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
数学生物学数学生物学
保护科学保护科学

背景情况:

临界点是生态系统中的关键值,影响着人口持续性和生态系统稳定性.
了解环境变化 (随机性) 在触发这些临界点方面的作用,对于有效的保护策略至关重要.
捕食者-猎物动态,特别是带有Allee效应和特定的功能反应,是复杂的,易受环境波动的影响.

研究的目的:

研究环境随机性如何影响捕食者-猎物模型中临界点的出现和特征.
分析噪声强度与不同稳定状态 (平衡) 之间人口转移的概率和时间之间的关系.
评估灭绝风险,并为人口管理制定早期预警信号.

主要方法:

开发了一个捕食者-猎物系统的数学模型,其中包含了Allee效应和Holling类型IV功能反应.
在模型中引入了环境随机性 (噪声),以模拟环境波动.
运行模拟来分析在不同噪音水平和强度下稳定状态之间倾斜的概率和时间.

主要成果:

倾向于灭绝平衡的概率通常会随着噪音强度的增加而单调地增加.
倾向于更有利的,可行的状态往往在中间噪音水平达到顶峰.
影响一种物种的噪音对倾倒概率的影响比影响其他物种的噪音更大.
捕食者噪音加快了灭绝的速度,而猎物噪音通常会减缓它.

结论:

环境随机性对生态转折点有复杂的,取决于场景的影响.
噪音可以增加灭绝风险,但也可能稳定中级系统,突出需要细微的管理.
这些发现为开发早期预警信号和管理标准提供了理论见解,以防止人口达到关键值.

关键词:

艾利效应是一种效应.霍林格的IV型功能反应反应.噪音诱导的倾斜引起的倾斜.捕食者猎物的模型

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