外部验证预测食道癌三种治疗方法后有条件存活率的诺姆图
Nannet Schuring1, Noel E Donlon2, Eliza R C Hagens3
1Department of Surgery, Amsterdam UMC, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Cancer Center Amsterdam, Cancer Treatment and Quality of Life, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Surgery
|September 21, 2023
概括
这项研究验证了一种名图,用于预测新辅助化学辐射和手术后食道癌存活率. 该模型在外部患者组中显示了中度的准确性,支持其用于条件生存预测的使用.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 手术瘤学手术瘤学
- 临床研究 临床研究
背景情况:
- 预测食道癌存活率对于治疗计划至关重要.
- 以前开发了一种名图,用于预测新辅助化学辐射和食道切除术后的5年总生存期.
- 外部验证是必要的,以评估nomogram的概括性.
研究的目的:
- 为了外部验证食道癌的有条件生存名录.
- 在新一组患者中评估名图的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 对296名食道腺癌或状细胞癌患者的回顾性分析.
- 患者接受了新辅助化学辐射,随后进行食道切除术.
- 验证包括评估歧视 (C统计) 和校准 (校准斜率).
主要成果:
- 诺莫图表显示了中度的预测性歧视 (C统计 = 0.65).
- 校准分析显示了预测与观察生存的差异.
- 手术后的每一年,生存概率都会增加,从45%上升到89%.
结论:
- 命名图表表现出适度的预测准确性和对外部队列的歧视.
- 该模型显示了预测食道癌症条件生存的潜在适用性.
- 建议进行进一步的验证研究,以确认预测性表现.
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