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模拟和预测气候变化下的黄河源区最大结深度的变化
Qin Ju1, Tongqing Shen2, Wenjie Zhao2
1The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
The Science of the total environment
|September 22, 2023
概括
由于气候变化,黄河源区的最大结深度正在减少. 一个BP神经网络模型准确地预测了未来的结深度,显示持续下降.
科学领域:
- 冰层科学 冰层科学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 青海-西藏高原 (QTP) 上的黄河 (SRYR) 源区的特点是永久土.
- 这种永久土对全球气候变化很敏感,因为温度较高.
- 了解最大结深度 (MFD) 的变化对于区域环境稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析SRYR中MFD的历史趋势.
- 评估和比较模拟MFD的不同模型.
- 在气候变化场景下预测未来的MFD变化.
主要方法:
- 来自九个气象站 (1997-2017) 的MFD数据的分析.
- 斯蒂芬方程,多重线性回归和BP神经网络用于MFD模拟的比较评估.
- 评估全球气候模型 (GCM) 在SRYR中的适用性.
- 使用最佳GCM (BCC-CSM2-MR和合奏) 与BP神经网络相结合,预测未来的MFD.
主要成果:
- 在SRYR的MFD范围从厘米到两米以上.
- 从1997年到2017年,MFD的总体下降趋势被观察到,区域平均速率为-10.8cm/10a.
- 在模拟MFD时,BP神经网络实现了高精度 (R=0.949),超过了其他方法.
- BCC-CSM2-MR和集体GCM显示出与测量温度和降水情况的良好一致.
- 未来的预测表明,在整个SRYR中,MFD的下降趋势将持续下降.
结论:
- 在SRYR的永久土正在经历显著的变暖和解.
- 在该地区,BP神经网络是MFD预测的可靠工具.
- 预计未来的气候变化将进一步减少SRYR的最大结深度,影响区域生态系统和水资源.
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