标准准备指数没有预测COVID-19的结果是否重要?
Michael A Stoto1, Christopher D Nelson2, John D Kraemer3
1Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Health, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA. stotom@georgetown.edu.
Globalization and health
|September 22, 2023
概括
全球卫生安全指数 (GHSI) 和联合外部评估 (JEE) 评分可能无法预测COVID-19的结果,原因是方法上的局限性和未能考虑政治领导和公众信任等关键因素. 这些指数对于识别能力缺口仍然很有价值.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生安全和疫情防控准备
- 公共卫生政策和评估
- 国际卫生法规 国际卫生法规
背景情况:
- 标准化准备指数,包括全球健康安全指数 (GHSI) 和联合外部评估 (JEE),已被质疑其预测COVID-19结果的能力.
- 人们担心这些指标可能无法充分反映现实世界的运营能力和流行病应对的复杂性.
- 建议对准备度测量进行根本性的重新评估,以更好地与实际,现场挑战保持一致.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评估当前准备指数预测COVID-19结果的感知失败背后的原因.
- 探索GHSI和JEE等现有指标的方法和概念限制.
- 重申这些指数在识别国家能力的关键差距方面的有用性.
主要方法:
- 使用累积病例和死亡数据进行研究的方法学批评,突出了单个数字结果措施的局限性.
- 分析流行病成功的多维性质,包括健康结果,干预措施和政策时间.
- 检查概念上的缺陷,特别是排除政治领导和公众信任作为关键反应因素.
主要成果:
- 现有的研究往往采用简单的结果测量和横截面设计,这些设计不足以评估复杂的流行病反应.
- 由于可变的完整性和代表性,国际死亡数据的可比性受到损害.
- 准备指数没有捕捉到有效的政治领导和公众信任等基本要素,这些因素对于利用能力至关重要.
结论:
- 尽管没有完美预测COVID-19结果,但GHSI和JEE等准备指数不应被驳回.
- 结果测量和研究设计的方法限制影响了这些指数的预测能力.
- 虽然这些指标对于识别能力和能力的差距至关重要,但对于有效的流行病应对来说,这些指标是必要的,但不够的,因为它们忽略了关键的社会政治因素.
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