波罗的海东部的海洋波浪轨迹预测系统:对漂流浮标的验证和石油泄漏建模的实施
Siim Pärt1, Jan-Victor Björkqvist2, Victor Alari1
1Tallinn University of Technology, Department of Marine Systems, Akadeemia tee 15a, Tallinn 12618, Estonia.
Marine pollution bulletin
|September 23, 2023
概括
爱沙尼亚的开源石油泄漏模型OpenDrift使用现实数据进行了验证. 结合电流和斯托克斯漂移提高了准确性,突出了波罗的海准备的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 计算建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 石油泄漏模型对于沿海环境保护至关重要.
- 准确的轨迹预测需要整合多种环境因素.
- 爱沙尼亚的波罗的海沿海水域面临着潜在的石油泄漏风险.
研究的目的:
- 在爱沙尼亚实施和验证OpenDrift框架用于石油泄漏建模.
- 评估各种强迫因素 (风,电流,斯托克斯漂移) 对轨迹准确性的影响.
- 评估模型是否适用于风险评估和应对计划.
主要方法:
- 合开放漂流与ECMWF风,NEMO-EST05水力动力学和SWAN-EST波浪模型.
- 通过在2022年进行的六个实验漂移实验进行验证.
- 对粒子轨迹上的不同强迫因素的灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 经过验证的OpenDrift模型准确地模拟了粒子轨迹.
- 包括斯托克斯漂移和电流在内,显著提高了模型准确度,而不是仅风的模拟.
- 斯托克斯漂移结合的有效性取决于包括电流.
- 在模型中使用的风漂因素与已建立的石油泄漏建模实践保持一致.
结论:
- OpenDrift提供了一个可靠的工具,用于模拟爱沙尼亚沿海水域的漏油轨迹.
- 准确的石油泄漏反应需要包括多个物理强迫因素的综合模型.
- 模型结果强调了对高风险地区发生恶劣天气事件的强有力的准备和快速响应策略的必要性.
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