最近全球热带气旋的多重快速加剧的增加
N D Manikanta1,2, Sudheer Joseph3, C V Naidu2
1Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Hyderabad, India.
Scientific reports
|September 24, 2023
概括
热带气旋的频率经历了快速强化 (RI) 超过一次,在全球范围内显著增加. 这一趋势与最大潜在强度 (MPI) 的上升有关,使风暴更容易发生多个RI事件.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TC) 的快速强化 (RI) 复杂化了预测,并增加了损害.
- 多个RI的TC,经历RI不止一次,带来更大的预测挑战.
- 了解多RITC频率的长期趋势对于气候变化适应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究多RITC频率的长期趋势与最大潜在强度 (MPI) 的变化之间的全球关系.
- 量化单个与多个快速加剧事件在TCs频率的变化.
主要方法:
- 对1981-2020年全球TC数据的分析.
- 对单个和多个快速加剧事件的频率的统计评估.
- 对TC强化趋势和MPI变化之间的相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 从1981年到2020年,全球多重RITC的频率显著增加 (1.2个TC/十年).
- 2000年至2020年,与1981年至2000年相比,多重RITC频率上升了82.43%.
- 在同一时期,单个RITC频率仅增加了1.63%.
- 升的MPI有助于TC成为有利于后期阶段的RI,使多个RI事件成为可能.
结论:
- 增加的MPI是多重RITC频率升高的关键驱动因素.
- 由于MPI升高,TC现在可以经历多次RI,即使经历了衰弱时期,由于MPI升高.
- 这些发现凸显了需要改进TC预测模型的需要,这些模型可以解释增加RI潜力.
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