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他们可能都是掠夺者
1School of Psychology, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
概括
大多数罪犯都在特定的犯罪范围内行事,表现出掠夺者模式. 这项研究揭示了圆形理论.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 地理概况分析 (Geographical Profiling) 是一项在地理上进行的分析.
- 环境犯罪学环境犯罪学
背景情况:
- 循环理论表明,罪犯在一个定义的犯罪范围内运作.
- 犯罪者被分类为掠夺者 (居住在范围内的) 或通勤者 (居住在范围之外).
- 最小的封闭圆圈被用来定义犯罪范围.
研究的目的:
- 在识别掠夺者的决策模式时,确定最小的封闭圆圈的失败率.
- 评估循环理论在区分掠夺者和通勤犯类型方面的准确性.
- 提出一种方法来估计犯罪者的真正犯罪领土大小.
主要方法:
- 进行了掠夺者决策模式的随机模拟.
- 在不同数量的违规行为下,分析了最小的封闭圈的失败率.
- 发表的掠夺者与通勤率与预测的故障率进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 失败率随着违法行为减少而增加,但仍然是系统的和可预测的.
- 预测的故障率与公布的掠夺者和通勤者分发率一致.
- 开发了一种方法来估计罪犯的刑事领土大小.
结论:
- 绝大多数违法者可能表现出掠夺者的决策模式.
- 真正的通勤违法者可能比之前循环理论所指的要少得多.
- 循环测试在分类罪犯类型中的准确性需要重新评估,特别是有限的犯罪数据.
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