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超诱导是否证明了诱导:或者可能是别的东西?
J Brian Pitts1,2,3
1University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
概括
费格尔-赖肯巴赫-萨尔蒙-舒尔兹的诱导证明表明,虽然没有一种方法可以保证未来的预测,但当在元层面应用时,诱导是最优的. 改进解决了短期问题,但关于过去的局部分歧使其普遍的理由变得复杂.
科学领域:
- 科学哲学的哲学科学哲学
- 认识论的认识论学.
- 逻辑 逻辑 逻辑 逻辑
背景情况:
- 归纳的务实理由认为,没有预测方法可以保证成功.
- 诱导,特别是在超级层面,通过跟踪记录评估预测方法,如果任何方法都能起作用,则被认为是最佳的.
- 舒尔茨的改进解决了与诱导相关的短期问题.
研究的目的:
- 检查诱导的正当性,特别是在关于过去事件的局部分歧的情况下.
- 在关于预测方法的历史和当代辩论中探索元诱导的含义.
- 评估证词接受标准在诱导的元诱导性证明中的作用.
主要方法:
- 分析Feigl-Reichenbach-Salmon-Schurz诱导的实用性理由的分析.
- 应用元诱导来评估对象级诱导的最佳性.
- 检查元诱导 (斯多派,古希伯来人) 和当代挑战 (贝叶斯主义) 的历史例子.
主要成果:
- 在过去的证据未经过的情况下,元诱导可能支持非诱导方法,特别是从替代方法的支持者的角度来看.
- 诱导在无争议的环境中以元诱导的方式得到证明,但在有争议的环境中不一定如此.
- 舒尔茨的证词接受标准至关重要,但可能无法完全克服贝叶斯方法固有的主观性.
结论:
- 通过元诱导诱导的合理性取决于上下文,并受到关于过去的局部分歧的挑战.
- 历史和哲学分析揭示了诱导推理的复杂性,有时是有争议的.
- 主观判断在接受证词中的作用,引发了关于诱导的完全客观理由的问题.
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