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建模低增长和负增长情景的转型政策路径,以评估对社会经济发展和碳排放的影响
1University of Denver, Denver, USA. jmoyer@du.edu.
Scientific reports
|September 25, 2023
概括
全球北方的退化战略可以在不损害发展的情况下减少碳排放. 然而,全球增长衰退显著减少了排放,但有可能增加极端贫困和阻碍发展目标.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 减缓气候变化减缓气候变化减缓
- 社会经济发展建模的建模.
背景情况:
- 倡导者提出减缓增长以应对人为气候变化,通过将经济优先事项从财富积累转变为福祉.
- 这项研究探讨了退化和再分配政策对社会经济和气候的影响.
研究的目的:
- 探索替代经济增长模式和转型性政策对人类发展的影响.
- 评估退化情景对气候变化和全球发展目标的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用国际期货 (IFs) 模型模拟各种经济增长和政策场景.
- 分析了退化和再分配政策对全球北方和南方的影响.
主要成果:
- 全球北方的退化和社会转型在2100年之前将累积碳排放量减少10.5%,而不会造成严重的社会经济损害.
- 全球退化情景减少了45%的排放,但严重破坏了包括消除贫困在内的发展目标.
- 即使有了广泛的再分配政策,全球负增长情景到2100年将极端贫困增加15个百分点.
结论:
- 全球北方的退化为减少排放提供了一条可行的途径,而不会影响长期发展.
- 全球经济衰退在减缓气候变化和实现全球发展目标,特别是减少贫困之间存在重大权衡.
- 包括再分配在内的转型政策不足以抵消全球普遍增长的负面发展影响.
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