一种用于预测乳腺癌老年患者乳腺癌特异性生存率的诺姆图:基于SEER人口的分析
Ruoning Yang1,2, Yunhao Wu1,2, Yana Qi3,4,5
1Division of Breast Surgery, Department of General Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
BMC geriatrics
|September 25, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一种名图,用于预测老年妇女的乳腺癌特定死亡. 该工具帮助临床医生为这个不断增长的人口做出更好的治疗决策.
科学领域:
- 老年瘤学 老年瘤学
- 乳腺癌研究研究 乳腺癌研究
- 临床决策支持 临床决策支持
背景情况:
- 全球老年患者乳腺癌发病率增加.
- 乳腺癌老年人的治疗决策的变化.
- 应用治疗指南对老年乳腺癌患者的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 在老年患者中确定乳腺癌特定死亡 (BCSD) 的独立预测因子.
- 开发和验证用于预测BCSD的预后性名谱.
- 帮助临床医生为老年乳腺癌患者做出明智的治疗决策.
主要方法:
- 使用了监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (2010-2016).
- 包括75,525名70岁以上的女性乳腺癌患者,最终分析为33,118人.
- 采用了竞争风险分析,并使用精细灰色模型开发了名图,并通过一致性指数 (C指数) 验证.
主要成果:
- 使用年龄,种族,瘤阶段和受体状态等因素构建了一个名图.
- 诺米图表显示出强大的预测能力,C指数为0.852 (训练) 和0.876 (测试).
- 校准图表证实了预测和观察结果之间的良好一致性.
结论:
- 确定了老年患者乳腺癌特定死亡的关键预测因子.
- 开发并验证了一种可靠的预后诺莫.
- 乳房图表作为一个有价值的工具,以支持老年乳腺癌患者的临床决策.
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