风险因素和预测模型的可视化,用于新生儿胃孔穿孔的早期死亡
Cui Mengying1,2, Chen Pengfei1,2, Hou Jinfeng1,2
1Department of General Surgery & Neonatal Surgery, Liangjiang Wing, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Clinical pediatrics
|September 26, 2023
概括
新生儿胃穿孔的死亡率为23.42%. 高血清是危险因素,而氧气水平,碳酸盐和血小板计数是保护性的,有助于预测早期死亡.
科学领域:
- 新生儿手术 新生儿手术
- 儿科胃肠病学 儿科胃肠病学
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
背景情况:
- 胃穿孔是一种严重的新生儿手术紧急情况.
- 早期识别风险因素对于改善结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响胃穿孔早期新生儿死亡的因素.
- 开发一种死亡风险的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对111名胃穿孔的新生儿进行了回顾性分析 (2003年5月至2021年10月).
- 后勤回归分析以确定独立的风险和保护因素.
- 开发和验证可视化名ogram预测模型.
主要成果:
- 死亡率为23.42%的人.
- 独立的危险因素:血清度增加 (OR 2.148).
- 保护因素:较高的动脉部分氧气压 (OR 0.977),二碳酸盐 (OR 0.779) 和血小板计数 (OR 0.986).
- 诺莫格拉姆模型显示高预测准确度 (AUC 0.828,灵敏度 80.0%,特异性 76.9%) 的得分> 163.787.7.
结论:
- 血清,氧化,二碳酸盐和血小板数量是新生儿胃穿孔死亡率的关键预测因素.
- 开发的诺米图为风险分层和临床决策提供了有价值的工具.
相关概念视频
01:22Esophageal Perforation-I: Introduction
112
Esophageal perforation is a severe medical condition characterized by a breach in the integrity of the esophageal wall. This breach can occur due to various factors such as trauma, medical procedures, or underlying diseases. When the esophageal wall is compromised, it allows food, fluids, and digestive juices into the chest cavity or adjacent structures, leading to potential complications and health risks.
The location of esophageal perforation can vary, occurring anywhere along the esophagus....
The location of esophageal perforation can vary, occurring anywhere along the esophagus....
112
01:28Esophageal Perforation-II: Clinical Manifestations and Management
82
Esophageal perforations manifest in various clinical forms, influenced by factors such as the perforation's cause and location (cervical, intrathoracic, or intra-abdominal), the extent of contamination, and potential injury to adjacent mediastinal structures. The timing between the perforation occurrence and treatment initiation also affects the clinical presentation.
Clinical Manifestations:
Clinical Manifestations:
82