仅仅是气候变化无法解释自1850年以来北大猩猩在北省的衰退
Chloé Morineau1, Yan Boulanger2, Philippe Gachon3,4
1Centre for Forest Research, Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada.
Global change biology
|September 26, 2023
概括
气候变化对北克森林大猩猩范围的收缩产生了有限的影响. 伐木和开发等人为驱动因素是它们息地减少的主要原因.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性保护 生物多样性保护
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
背景情况:
- 物种范围的缩减是全球生物多样性丧失的关键指标.
- 人类活动和气候变化都威胁到物种息地.
- 区分这些驱动因素对于有效的保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估近期气候变化对北极林地鹿 (Rangifer tarandus caribou) 自1850年以来在北克北方范围收缩的影响.
- 区分气候变化与人类干扰对鹿范围变化的影响.
- 为危物种的保护战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 配对历史范围地图与全球大气再分析数据.
- 量化范围的变化通过将观察到的南部极限与预测的气候条件进行比较.
- 分析了观测和气候模型范围收缩之间的差异.
主要成果:
- 后排的南部边界向北移动了大约105公里,远远小于自1850年以来观察到的620公里移动.
- 仅仅气候变化就只能占到观察到的鹿范围衰退的17%.
- 人为驱动因素 (伐木,道路,农业,城市化) 是导致范围收缩的主要因素.
结论:
- 最近的气候变化在北克观察到的森林大猩猩范围衰退中起到了很小的作用.
- 人类干扰是息地丧失和竞争的主要驱动因素,导致范围收缩.
- 在未来的分布模型中修改历史范围数据对于危物种的保护至关重要.
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