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在美国的气候变化缓解情景中,二氧化碳储存资源使用的可行性

Yuting Zhang¹, Christopher Jackson¹, Nihal Darraj¹

¹Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2BX, U.K.

Environmental science & technology

|September 26, 2023

概括

技术经济模型高估了二氧化碳储存的部署. 现实的增长约束揭示了丰富的资源,但突出了运输的局限性和可能无法实现的指数式增长率.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
地质工程是地质工程.
能源政策能源政策

背景情况:

技术经济模型预测,美国二氧化碳排放将大量用于二氧化碳储存,到2050年,每年注入的量将达到0.3-1.7亿.
这些模型往往忽略了关键的地质,技术和社会经济因素,导致部署可行性的不确定性.
能源基础设施的增长轨迹通常比目前的二氧化碳储存模型所预测的扩张速度慢.

研究的目的:

从主要的技术经济模型来评估预计的二氧化碳储存部署场景的可行性.
分析存储资源的可用性和增长限制对部署轨迹的影响.
为未来的建模工作提供更现实的地质储存增长参数.

主要方法:

对二氧化碳储存的四个突出的技术经济建模工作的分析.
应用物流增长建模框架来评估部署可行性.
基于地质储存资源的可用性和运输限制,评估增长轨迹的限制.

主要成果:

美国的地质储存资源丰富,如果解决运输问题,仅墨西哥湾沿岸就有可能满足国家需求.
预计的部署需要持续的平均年指数增长率超过10%的国家和3-20%区域.
这些增长率明显高于美国同等大型能源基础设施的历史扩张率.

结论:

由于缺乏现实的增长限制,目前的二氧化碳储存部署预测可能过于乐观.
尽管地质资源丰富,但运输限制是广泛储存二氧化碳的重要瓶.
未来的二氧化碳储存建模应纳入现实的部署轨迹,可能使用考虑资源和基础设施限制的框架.

关键词:

二氧化碳的储存和储存美国的美国.气候变化缓解气候变化缓解增长建模增长建模增长率是指增长率的增长率.净零零是零的净零.储存资源的需求储存资源的需求

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