在为可持续发展建模动态系统方面取得的进展
Noelle E Selin1,2, Amanda Giang3,4, William C Clark5
1Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
概括
动态建模的近期进展增强了对可持续发展的自然社会系统的理解. 进步解决了将模型应用于现实世界问题的挑战,改善了为人类福祉做出决策.
科学领域:
- 可持续性科学 可持续性科学
- 复杂系统建模 复杂系统建模
- 自然与社会的互动.
背景情况:
- 可持续发展面临的挑战是整合复杂的自然社会系统.
- 传统的建模方法往往难以解决现实世界的可持续性问题.
- 动态建模的最新进展为理解这些系统提供了新的途径.
研究的目的:
- 评估近期在为可持续发展建模自然社会系统方面取得的进展.
- 突出动态建模方法及其在应对可持续发展挑战中的应用.
- 讨论这些方法如何推进理论,并为可持续发展科学中的行动提供信息.
主要方法:
- 对自然社会系统应用的动态建模方法的审查.
- 分析建模实践的四个关键阶段的进展:目的定义,组件选择,相互作用分析和干预评估.
- 具体行业和地方应用的例子,证明了更好的理解和行动.
主要成果:
- 动态建模的进步已经开始解决可持续发展的长期挑战.
- 方法改善了对定义目的,选择组件,分析相互作用和评估干预措施的理解和明智行动.
- 在特定行业和地点的应用突出了对人类福祉和可持续性时间表更广泛影响的潜力.
结论:
- 新兴的建模方法对于推进自然社会系统理论和实践至关重要.
- 进一步利用这些方法可以加强框架的采用,澄清概念,并帮助发展假设.
- 持续开发和应用动态模型对于有效的可持续发展战略至关重要.
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