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碳边界调整机制对中国制造业的影响:基于进化游戏的动态递归CGE模型
1Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
欧盟的碳边界调整机制 (CBAM) 可能会略有降低中国的GDP和出口价格,但它对碳排放的整体影响很小,更像是一种保护主义措施.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
背景情况:
- 全球碳排放量不断增加,需要像欧盟碳边界调整机制 (CBAM) 这样的政策.
- 该计划旨在防止碳泄漏,并影响中国的对外贸易.
- 现有的研究往往忽略了关键因素,如大宗商品价格,长期影响和不断变化的国家出口战略.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估CBAM对中国制造业的影响.
- 分析碳关税对贸易,GDP和排放的动态影响.
- 为中国和欧盟政府提出战略,以应对CBAM的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型,与进化游戏集成.
- 将18个受影响的行业纳入CBAM框架.
- 在欧盟内部竞争下,模拟2020年至2050年的碳关税政策.
主要成果:
- 预计碳关税将降低中国的出口价格,并略微降低中国的实际GDP.
- 在18个行业和化石能源使用中观察到碳排放强度的边际下降.
- 对总碳排放的总体影响很小,这表明CBAM的保护功能.
结论:
- 基于进化游戏的CGE模型证明了对碳关税冲击的弹性.
- 欧盟当地供应商的优势是暂时的;预计中国供应商将保持主导地位.
- 中国应该实施更严格的碳税和出口补贴;欧盟可能需要补贴当地供应商.
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